Sub-Saharan Africa is braced for months of “mind-blowing” weather extremes, with scientists and specialists warning of an imminent El Niño that could be the most destructive ever seen.
With the Pacific Ocean currently heating to highest ever temperatures, countries in the tropics – including Ethiopia, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique and Burkina Faso could be facing ‘Godzilla-level’ El Niño weather in the months to come, according to the Red Cross Climate Centre.
Meteorologists say that forecasting clarity of the imminent threat is unrivalled. For some months, agriculture and development organisations, including Self Help Africa, have been working with local partners, governments and farming organisations to ensure that vulnerable communities are as prepared as is possible. Early warning weather alerts, co-ordinated response mechanisms, flood preparation and crop varieties with short-harvesting cycles are just some of the measures being put in place.
The African continent is braced to face dual weather extremes – including abnormally heavy rainfall and widespread flooding in the Horn of Africa and parts of East Africa, and severe drought, prolonged heatwaves and rarely seen high temperatures in southern Africa and parts of the Sahel – along the southern edge of the Sahara Desert.
Scientists working with the UK Government say that the imminent threat has been amplified by long-term global warming, that has ‘stacked’ El Niño on top of already hotter baseline temperatures around the globe.
El Niño occurs when normal trade winds weaken, allowing warm ocean water to spill back eastward across the tropical Pacific toward South America. This redistribution of warm water alters global jet streams, shifting rainfall patterns worldwide to trigger severe droughts in some regions and heavy flooding in others.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: “El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. “Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
Africa is considered the continent most vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate, with eight of the world’s 10 most climate-vulnerable countries located there. Around 65 per cent of Africa’s population depends on small-scale farming for their livelihoods, while the vast majority of the continent’s 33 million farms rely almost entirely on rainfall for water.